Politics is like ocean waves. They appear closer to where you are standing. But the moment you try to touch them, they are meters away. If you try to chase them you get drown.
Or Politics is like a coin at the bottom of an ocean it appears floating towards you.
But the moment you try to touch it your whole body gets submerged.
Or rather we should say politics is like a balloon flying in the air. You can chase it a long distance in order to catch it.
But the moment you get close to it, what does it do?
It bursts.
You regret wasting your energy and time for nothing. There are many vivid examples to my theory.
Mark Katsonga has suddenly become main actor. Observe everything around him.
He believes the only way to win landslide in 2014 is to sponsor lyrist and self styled political musician Joseph Nkasa.
Isn’t this a close testimony of the illusion that I am talking about. A coin at the bottom of an ocean appearing floating towards you yet it is far.
Someone some years back said one of my legs is at Sanjika (Mwendo umodzi uli ku Sanjika). Is this not the same illusion I am talking about. Same politician went on to threat that the then President would not stay three months in office. The sin he committed was dismissing him from cabinet-illusion?
Take Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika what he say in rallies?
He believes 2014 he is taking over government because he does not agree with Joyce Banda’s policies.
He seems to believe very one does not a with Joyce Banda’s regime. Yet his DPP is the biggest beneficiaries of Joyce Banda reformatory.
They have been frequenting the courts seeking injunctions when during their time they outlawed injunctions.
Despite answering serious charges which can impinge his very chances of appearing on the ballot Mutharika keeps preaching that come 2014 he is in government- illusion?
Atupele Muluzi believes 2014 is for young people. He believes Malawians need politics of ideas. He forgets that his own father was President and he left with serious acrimonies.
He forgets that through him people see his father.
Atupele’s politics only benefit his father. Every family desires they had a programmable child like Atupele. Atupele is the real treasure of the Muluzi’s.
While Atupele is important to his family, he may not be seen as such to the entire nation.
So Atupele’s pursuit is another good illusion of ocean waves appearing as if they are coming towards you while they are moving away.
What does winning elections require?
Winning election is like winning war. To win a war is not just about the number of soldiers but war plan, powerful equipment or weapon and well trained soldiers who can operate them.
You are able to reduce damages on your side and increase casualties the enemies’ side.
If numbers were the only key to victory then America couldn’t have defeated the populous Vietnam?
There is no shortcut in an election. But good campaign strategy, viable plans to convince and attract the voter.
I said in one article how UDF benefitted from the idea of ferrying their supporters in trucks and Leonard Makhumula buses campaign rallies.
There was no party that was doing this.
How they segmented the country and made sure they have a giant politician each region.
Weren’t they the only sophisticated party during that time? Weren’t they the first to invent hand-outs, compensating their supporters?
You would have expected Malawi Congress Party (MCP) which then was the richest party with assets everywhere, having snatched millions from innocent people, to be the first to compensate people with handouts. !
Ask any ordinary man who watched how UDF won the first election 1994. It was a surprise occurrence.
UDF came from mid air. If Malawians were programmed to vote another party other than MCP then obviously they could have voted Chakufwa Chihana and his Aford because they were the first on the scene to shout democracy.
So in a nutshell what made UDF win was their inclusiveness, plan and creativity in their campaign process.
I must repeat UDF was not the richest but the most generous.
I attended both rallies, first by UDF and then Aford with my father.
UDF was blessed with articulate personalities who were bringing stories people did not know or understand about modern politics.
They were speaking the language of the people. They were speaking what people should hear.
They were not just communicating their campaign but also interpreting and clarifying topical issues enabling their supporters to be well ahead of others in terms of knowledge of politics of democracy.
For example an incident happens they were taking it the podium to explain to the ordinary people the origin and what it meant.
So UDF was also the people’s BBC. Such was one entertaining.
Come elections day, was it difficult for them to whip votes?
Do you think UDF did not know their weaknesses and the weaknesses of your competitors?
I recall attending an MCP rally held by one Brian Mungomo, elder brother to Albert Mungomo.
Before speaking he started dancing like a demented saying that was exactly what Kamuzu desired Malawians must not forfeit their culture.
Mammoth crowds joined him in what I saw as near Kwasa-kwasa magule jive.
After that he boasted how he became Kamuzu’s brother in marriage claiming he married within Kadzamira family.
It came out zongofanana mayina (synonyms).
It was a well patronized rally. People cheered him from the first speech to the last. Immediately after he left they started insulting him, stoning his boys for not leaving even a cent.
“We have orphans here and you want them to be destitute or what (adzikadya kuchipatala?) Useless politician!”
Some even tore the MCP t/shirts he gave them. It is not easy to read a voter’s mind.
They will all attend rallies in large numbers but there will be one winner after all.
OPINION POLLS
I would like to add my voice on the topic of opinion polls which has become a firing line against government on many social networks.
I must say that these views are simply my personal opinion; I might be right or wrong. But mine is a contribution to the raging debates in Malawi as we recede towards the tripartite elections next year.
Let’s remember the value of politics of ideologies for our national progress.
No matter we differ in understanding of politics the biggest picture is we are all Malawians.
Undismissable is a fact that opinion polls are a practical attempt to spectacle a foreseeable eventuality.
However scholars have it on record that no opinion poll on earth can achieve excellent representation of what would happen. Not even on broad day sunlight.
And it is a fact that many opinion polls are a paradox, they mean exactly the opposite. I will clearly explain how, later in this article.
It is also undismisable fact that any election is a lotto game where the results don’t follow a strict pattern.
Recently there was an opinion poll and it is alleged that President Joyce Banda lost.
I will discuss a few things on this and other serious political topics in this analysis. I will explain why indeed Joyce Banda cannot win an opinion poll carried out in the manner it was done but she can win the real election.
Just to give you a clue. Do you recall the previous opinion polls? There was another one which pitied Atupele Muluzi, then came yet another one, pitied Professor Mutharika, the latest says Chakwera. Ask yourself how many Presidents will win 2014 elections. Is it not one? Why should we have three people winning the opinion polls?
Like I have said I will explain the scientific problems with opinion polls especially on their accuracy.
Opinion polls are important. But when three consecutive opinion polls tend to produce three separate winners, let’s get worried.
It goes back to what I said that expert statisticians and statistical scholars have it on record, no opinion survey can perfectly represent the ideal event or eventuality.
It is true that a portion of pot can represent the taste of the entire pot. But this theory is not universal. It is possible to have a bad impression of a pot if it is not perfectly stirred. True or False?
The coffee gives me different tastes from one layer to the other if sugar in it is not stirred properly.
WHY DOES JOYCE BAND LOSE OPINION POLLS
This is the question that must be answered here. What class of people participates in satellite opinion polls should be our main focus.
There are two classes who participate in most of the satellite opinion polls. I call them satellite because they don’t involve grassroots. Here am not trying to open debate on how grassroots rate Joyce Banda and her government. Let’s stick to the satellite opinion poll.
1 Elites, Wealthy or Privileged people
The first group that is likely to take part in a satellite opinion poll is that of privileged, wealthy, or elites.
These ideally are the people who afford to access media such as newspapers without difficulties. These are the people who possess means to participate in the polls as they have sophisticated gadgets such as state of the art mobile phones etc.
It does not provide difficulty to state that a poor man cannot afford the cost of one sms.
Majority of the participants are critical minds who believe in scholarly theories which don’t practicality is not easy to prove.
So these people believe Joyce is putting policies upside down and she is not making progress. They would say, it is better for us to go eastwards but they wouldn’t tell you how?
A poor man has his own politics. That is why even after chasing all the vendors in town Bingu went on to kill a landslide. A poor man in the village doesn’t care what is happening in town, he cares about what is happening around him.
2 Implants
After every regime change, a process of shortchange takes place which results in many people affiliated to previous regimes.
These people resemble implants because they seem riding inertia of the regime that made their lives better.
If I am to give example, did you notice how Nicholas Dausi fought for Malawi Congress Party (MCP) in the first years of democracy?
Such things happen with every regime. Even UDF had/has its own secret sympathizers; the ones who believe owe the party their whole being.
I am able to decipher this class because I witnessed how DPP suffered in the first years of its rule due to tentacles of UDF.
This class is also privileged one such that it affords the requirements of participating in an opinion poll.
WHY WILL JOYCE BANDA WIN THE REAL 2014
To the opposition elections are like a game of Lotto. The element of incumbency grants President Joyce Banda major control harmony.
She holds the entire 36million chances to win than to lose.
Here is how Lotto works.
There are 36million patterns and the chance to get it right is one out of 36million.
To be 100 percent sure of winning Lotto, you must play 36million times. This translate that for opposition to win an election they must bribe the entire 15million Malawians which is an impossibility in both occasions
The chance that the grand prize will remain with the running company is 35million when Opposition play the game.
Now Joyce Banda being President is both a participant and a host which means her chances are the entire 36million. This scientific calculation may confuse you but it is simple arithmetic.
Let me remind you what international researcher Afro Barometer said in 2006 that many Malawians believe voting an opposition is not a wise decision because members of opposition are not known to be enemies of development. This perhaps adds on to the scientific dissecting of the power of incumbency.
In fact Afro Barometer found that Bingu would win but his party would lose to UDF. This was the genuine Afro Barometer. The other Afro Barometer that was publicized later on just before 2009 elections was a questionable one. Because Afro Barometer has a period of up to five years before returning to a country. Unless contracted which is almost impossible they couldn’t come 2006 then 2009.
I can believe the Afro Barometer that came 2012 who predicted Joyce would win because it was within their term.
LET EXAMINE THE THREE WINNERS
CHAKWERA
Lazarus Chakwera represents Malawi Congress Party (MCP). And the opinion poll says he will win. Many people don’t believe this can happen viewing how Malawians rejected MCP in the past elections. The nearest MCP could have won elections was 2009 when UDF backed them. It was a combination of giants. But what happened, Malawians rejected Malawi Congress Party. This rejection was a sign that Malawians are far from forgiving MCP’s sinful past.
PROFESSOR MUTHARIKA
Mutharika represents the DPP. During its terms 20 Malawians were killed while holding a peaceful demonstration. Do you really Malawians can make a sudden change to allow another Mutharika siphon their hard won fuel resources?
ATUPELE
He represents UDF. At least bolako!
But Malawians have huge reservations over his father who is answering serious corruption and theft charges. Atupele has made several serious mistakes and Malawians have taken note.
AMAYI JOYCE BANDA
She is the incumbent, the one calling the shots. She has repaired all the problems left by the careless and negligent Bingu wa Mutharika.
No more zigubu stories on the front pages of newspapers and magazines.
But the opinion poll says she will lose. Banda helped Mutharika win landslide in 2009. Being the first woman, Banda is likely to rake the secret majority women votes just as she did with Mutharika in 2009.
A woman can’t see a fellow woman on the ballot and choose to vote a man. Even the Quran does not agree with this opinion poll. It says women are born with behavior of forming networks sympathizing with one another.
The only woman who can vote a man is the one with an agenda with that man, who happens to be some one’s husband-bwinotu bwino!
In conclusion that opinion poll will work. Only that it will work in reverse. I join Malawians who prefer taking it topside down.
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